COE renewals and prices: what the LTA data actually shows
Published · Updated · 5 min read · PaperValue.sg
COE renewal is worth watching because an owner who keeps a car does not need a new certificate from that month’s auction. But renewal counts alone do not tell us where COE prices will go.
The latest figures used here show a recovery: car renewals rose from 4,403 in 2023 to 13,947 in 2025. The monthly LTA PDF retrieved for this update covers January–June 2026, with 13,372 car renewals in those six months.
That changes the story from our original article, which described an ongoing collapse and claimed renewal rates predicted premiums better than quota. The data presented did not establish that claim.
The checked numbers
These totals add Cat A and Cat B, including both five- and ten-year renewals. They are counts of COE revalidations, not percentages of owners reaching their first ten-year expiry.
| Period | Car COE renewals, Cat A + B |
|---|---|
| Full year 2019 | 41,777 |
| Full year 2023 | 4,403 |
| Full year 2024 | 9,065 |
| Full year 2025 | 13,947 |
| January–June 2025 | 6,474 |
| January–June 2026 | 13,372 |
Sources: LTA annual COE revalidations and monthly COE revalidations, checked 13 September 2026. The partial-year figures are shown separately from annual totals.
Renewals in the first half of 2026 were about 107% higher than in the same six months of 2025. That is a valid comparison of volumes. It does not prove owners became twice as likely to renew: the number and type of vehicles eligible for renewal may also have changed.
Why a renewal count is not a renewal rate
A rate needs a defined denominator. To measure the share of first-ten-year owners renewing, we would need a matched cohort of vehicles reaching that expiry and the renewal decisions for those vehicles.
The published counts can include early renewals and cars renewing again after a previous ten-year renewal. Comparing them with all deregistrations would not necessarily describe the same group.
The original percentage series did not document a matched denominator. We have removed it and the accompanying price chart. The verified counts remain useful, with their limits made clear.
How renewal affects supply and demand
Renewing means paying the Prevailing Quota Premium, rather than bidding for a new COE. PQP is based on the previous three months of bidding results and changes monthly. LTA’s renewal rules.
An owner who deregisters may buy a new car, buy used or stop owning a car. Deregistration also contributes to future quota, subject to the allocation rules and timing.
The original argument said the released certificate was “diluted” while the new bid was “concentrated”. That is not a valid arithmetic reason for prices to rise.
Consider a simplified example: 100 owners deregister and all 100 buy new cars. That can add 100 replacement buyers and contribute 100 vehicles to future replacement supply. Price effects depend on timing, allocation and other demand. They do not follow automatically from the shared auction pool.
What else moves the numbers?
Several factors can move renewal volumes and premiums together:
- Expiry cohorts: more vehicles approaching renewal can produce more renewals even if behaviour is unchanged.
- PQP and replacement prices: owners compare keeping the current car with buying another one.
- Vehicle condition and PARF: a repair bill or rebate forfeiture can change the individual decision.
- Quota timing and other buyers: new entrants, fleet buyers and owners switching vehicles affect the auction.
MOT’s May 2026 explanation for elevated premiums pointed to strong demand, competitive EV prices and differing supply patterns between Categories A and B. It did not establish renewals as a superior predictor. MOT’s demand-and-supply explanation.
A claim that renewals predict prices better than quota would need a defined dataset, appropriate time lags and testing on later periods. A chart showing two historical series is insufficient.
What owners can use this for
If you are buying, treat renewal data as context alongside quota and bidding results. It does not produce a reliable “buy this month” signal.
If your COE is expiring, use your own numbers: PQP, sale proceeds, PARF forfeited, expected repairs and the cost of your replacement. The renew-or-sell guide makes that comparison concrete.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are car renewals still falling?
The checked figures show an increase in 2024 and 2025, followed by higher January–June volumes in 2026 than in the same period of 2025. This article does not claim a full-year 2026 result.
Does more renewal mean lower COE prices?
Not necessarily. Renewal can affect both replacement demand and later supply; other buyers, quota timing and prices also matter.
Where can I find newer data?
Use LTA’s statistics page. Check the period inside each PDF rather than assuming it is current to today.
How often does PQP change?
Monthly. It is based on the last three months in which bidding took place, not a new renewal price after every individual auction.