How the 2026 PARF changes affect your car's value
3 March 2026 · 9 min read · PaperValue.sg
On 12 February 2026, the government took a chainsaw to PARF rebates. If you're buying a new car after that date, your 10-year depreciation just jumped by thousands. If you already own a car registered before that date, yours just became more valuable.
Most coverage focuses on the first part. The second part is where the real money is.
Here's exactly how the numbers work, what it means for your wallet, and three things you should do right now.
What Changed
PM Lawrence Wong announced that PARF rebates — the money you get back when you deregister your car before the 10-year COE expiry — would be cut across every age band. A flat 45 percentage-point reduction.
| Age at Deregistration | Old PARF Rebate | New PARF Rebate | You Lose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Within 5 years | 75% of ARF | 30% of ARF | 45% of ARF |
| 5–6 years | 70% of ARF | 25% of ARF | 45% of ARF |
| 6–7 years | 65% of ARF | 20% of ARF | 45% of ARF |
| 7–8 years | 60% of ARF | 15% of ARF | 45% of ARF |
| 8–9 years | 55% of ARF | 10% of ARF | 45% of ARF |
| 9–10 years | 50% of ARF | 5% of ARF | 45% of ARF |
| After 10 years | Nothing | Nothing | — |
The PARF rebate cap was also halved — from $60,000 to $30,000.
These changes apply to cars registered with COEs obtained from the second bidding exercise in February 2026 onwards. If your car was registered before 13 February 2026, you're on the old scheme. That distinction matters more than most people realize.
The Damage in Dollars
We ran the numbers across three car segments. All figures assume deregistration at year 10.
| Toyota Altis | BMW 318i M Sport | Mercedes S450L | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Segment | Mass-market | Mid-luxury | Luxury |
| ARF | $20,000 | $57,485 | $235,648 |
| Old PARF (50%) | $10,000 | $28,743 | $60,000 (capped) |
| New PARF (5%) | $1,000 | $2,874 | $11,782 |
| You lose | $9,000 | $25,869 | $48,218 |
The Altis owner loses $9,000 over 10 years. That's $75 a month you're not getting back.
The BMW owner loses $25,869. That's $216 a month in extra depreciation.
The S-Class owner loses $48,218. $402 a month.
These aren't projections. This is the new math for anyone buying after 13 February 2026.
Why Your Existing Car Just Got More Valuable
This is the part most coverage misses.
If you own a car registered before 13 February 2026, you're still on the old PARF schedule. Your rebates haven't changed. But the market around you has.
Take two identical 2-year-old BMW 318i sedans on the used market in 2028. One was registered in January 2026 (old scheme). The other in March 2026 (new scheme). The January car has a future PARF rebate of up to $28,743. The March car: $2,874.
Same car. Same year. $25,869 difference in future rebates.
The January car is objectively worth more to the next buyer because they'll collect a bigger payout when they eventually deregister. Used car dealers know this. Informed buyers are already filtering for pre-February 2026 registration dates on SGCarMart.
If you own a pre-cutoff car, your resale position just improved relative to new cars. Don't rush to trade it in without understanding what you're holding.
How This Affects Selling, Buying, and Renewing
Selling or Trading In Now
If your car was registered before the cutoff, your PARF rebate is unchanged. But here's what dealers won't volunteer: your old-scheme PARF makes your car more attractive as a used purchase, which should support resale prices in the short to medium term. Buyers who do their homework are already paying attention to registration dates.
Buying New After the Cutoff
Your total cost of ownership is higher. The car costs the same to buy, but you get back much less when you're done with it. Annual depreciation goes up, especially for mid-range and luxury petrol and hybrid models.
Watch for dealer pricing adjustments in the higher-ARF segments. Some may lower sticker prices to soften the blow. Others will shift toward lower-cost models where the depreciation hit stings less.
COE Renewal at Year 10
The math just tilted. Under the old scheme, your PARF rebate at year 10 was still meaningful — giving that up to renew COE was a real cost. Under the new scheme, PARF at year 10 is almost nothing (5% of ARF). Renewing COE is suddenly more attractive because you're barely sacrificing any rebate.
If fewer cars get deregistered at year 10, fewer COE certificates return to the bidding pool. Less supply, same demand, upward pressure on COE prices. Worth watching.
The EV Angle
The government's stated reason: EVs are less pollutive, so the incentive to encourage early scrapping through PARF is less necessary. EVs now account for about 45% of new car sales in Singapore.
EVs are technically on the same new PARF schedule. But the practical hit is smaller because many EVs already have low ARF after EV Early Adoption Incentive (EEAI) and VES rebates.
| BYD Atto 3 (EV) | Toyota Altis 1.6 (Petrol) | |
|---|---|---|
| Gross ARF | $39,600 | $20,000 |
| EV rebates* | -$30,000 | $0 |
| Effective ARF | $9,600 | $20,000 |
| Old PARF (50%) | $4,800 | $10,000 |
| New PARF (5%) | $480 | $1,000 |
| You lose | $4,320 | $9,000 |
*EV rebates = VES Band A rebate ($22,500) + EV Early Adoption Incentive ($7,500). Petrol cars receive no VES rebate and may incur a VES surcharge.
The Atto 3 has a higher sticker price, but after rebates its effective ARF is less than half the Altis. PARF hit over 10 years: $4,320 for the EV vs $9,000 for the petrol car.
EVs didn't gain from this change. But petrol cars lost more, and the total-cost-of-ownership gap just got wider. The government made ICE cars more expensive to own without spending a dollar on new EV subsidies.
Renewed COE Cars: Nothing Changes
Already past 10 years? PARF was already zero for you. Your car's value is purely COE rebate plus whatever the body is worth. This change doesn't touch you.
Three Things to Do Right Now
Check your registration date. Before 13 February 2026? You're on the old schedule. Know this before any dealer conversation — some sellers have walked into showrooms quoting old-scheme numbers because nobody told them there were two schedules running.
Recalculate if you're buying new. Don't use old PARF percentages. Your 10-year paper value is significantly lower now, which means your real annual depreciation is higher. Factor this into your budget before you sign anything.
Get an independent valuation before you sell or trade in. Dealers have always had an information advantage. With two PARF schemes running in parallel, the gap between what they know and what you know just got wider. An independent valuation gives you the real number before you sit down to negotiate.
How PaperValue.sg Handles the Change
Our valuations use your car's actual PARF schedule based on its registration date — not a generic number. We calculate your exact paper value (COE rebate + PARF rebate), estimate your market value and trade-in range, and show where you sit relative to fair market pricing.
Old scheme or new scheme, the numbers in your report are specific to your car.
Run the numbers at papervalue.sg.
PaperValue.sg provides independent car valuations for Singapore. We're not dealers. We don't buy your car, sell you one, or take referral fees. We just do the math so you don't walk in blind.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does this affect my car if it was registered before February 2026? No. Cars registered before 13 February 2026 stay on the old schedule. Your PARF rebates are unchanged.
How much less will I get under the new scheme? 45 percentage points less across every age band. For a car with $20,000 ARF deregistered at year 10: $1,000 instead of $10,000. For $70,000 ARF: $3,500 instead of $35,000.
Is the $30,000 cap relevant for most cars? For mass-market cars (Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, BYD), usually not — their PARF at 30% of ARF rarely hits $30,000. For luxury cars with high ARF, it bites. Under the old scheme, a car with $200,000 ARF could get back $60,000 at year 5 (75% capped at $60k). Under the new scheme: $30,000 max (30% of $200k = $60k, but capped at $30k).
Will COE prices drop because of this? Short-term, maybe a small dip as buyers hesitate. Long-term, unlikely. Fewer early deregistrations means fewer COE certificates returning to the pool, which tightens supply. COE prices won't see lasting drops from this alone.
Should I buy an EV now instead of petrol? Not solely because of this change. The depreciation math alone shouldn't flip your decision. But if you were already considering an EV, the total-cost-of-ownership gap just tilted further in the EV's favour. Make sure you can charge at home or at work first — that's still the biggest practical factor.
How is PaperValue different from a dealer valuation? Dealers are buyers. Their "valuation" is an offer price — naturally lower than market value because they need profit when they resell. PaperValue gives you the independent market value so you know the gap before you negotiate.